Latest publications

Predicting the First Onset of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors in Adolescents Using Multimodal Risk Factors: A 4-Year Longitudinal Study

October 3, 2025

We developed a machine learning model to predict the first onset of suicidal thoughts and/or behaviours (STB) in adoelscence – a develomental stage most vulnerable for suicidality. Our model predicted first-onset STB over four years with moderate accuracy (AUCs ≈0.63–0.73 across comparisons with healthy and clinical controls. The most important predictors in this population included female sex, sleep disturbance, and adverse home and school environments.

Open Access: Child & Adolescent Psychiatry

Primary investigator

Co-Contributors

  • Dominic Dwyer
  • Yara Toenders
  • Scott Tagliaferri
  • Laura van Velzen
  • Assoc Prof Scott Clark, Ph.D.
  • Isabelle Scott
  • Simon Hartmann
  • Johanna Wigman
  • Professor Ashleigh Lin, Ph.D.
  • Andrew Thompson
  • Cassandra Wannan
  • Caroline Gao
  • Professor Stephen Wood, Ph.D.
  • Professor Paul Amminger, Ph.D.
  • Professor Alison Yung, M.D.
  • Professor Nikolaos Koutsouleris, M.D.
  • Jessica Hartmann
  • Hok Pan Yuen
  • Christopher Davey
  • Angelica Ronald
  • Professor Pat McGorry, M.D, Ph.D.
  • Professor Christel Middeldorp, M.D., Ph.D.
  • Professor Barnaby Nelson, Ph.D.
  • Lianne Schmaal